Anthropic CEO vs. Research: Is AI Growth Exponential?

The CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, claims AI growth is exponential, but his own company's research appears to contradict this. Amodei's essay, titled "Policy on the AI exponential," frequently uses the word "exponential." However, the system card for Anthropic's Claude Mythos model states that intelligence gains are confidently attributed to human research, not AI assistance. It also notes that early claims of large AI-attributable wins have not held up. Furthermore, the system card for Anthropic's Fable 5 model explicitly states, "We do not observe a sustained, AI-attributable 2x acceleration in the pace of our AI progress." Amodei cites a 2020 paper he co-authored, but its conclusions have been questioned by other AI researchers. This discrepancy raises important questions about the actual pace of AI development.