Anthropic CEO vs. Research: Is AI Growth Exponential?

Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, recently published an essay claiming AI growth is exponential. However, this assertion appears to contradict Anthropic's own research. Amodei's essay uses the word "exponential" multiple times, stating that AI's scaling laws predict an exponential increase in cognitive capabilities. He believes this could lead to "Powerful AI" within a year or two. Here's the thing: The system card for Anthropic's Claude Mythos model states that intelligence gains are confidently attributable to human research, not AI assistance. It also notes that early claims of large AI-attributable wins have not held up. What's interesting is that the system card for Anthropic's Fable 5 model further supports this. Researchers specifically looked for evidence of a feedback loop leading to advanced AI. Their conclusion: "We do not observe a sustained, AI-attributable 2x acceleration in the pace of our AI progress." The bottom line is that the company's own models suggest AI progress isn't exponentially accelerating on its own. This raises questions about the basis for the CEO's claims.