Kalshi: Low Odds of US Gov't OpenAI Stake in 2024

Kalshi traders believe there's a low chance the U.S. government will take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year. Odds are less than 30%. This follows reports that OpenAI proposed giving the U.S. government a 5% stake. The idea of offering the government a stake was shared with the Trump administration back in 2025. What's interesting is Kalshi traders see a much higher likelihood, over 60%, that the government could take stakes in quantum computing companies like Rigetti Computing or D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries. The U.S. Commerce Department previously announced $2 billion in grants to nine firms in the quantum computing space, with a plan to take a minority stake in each. Traders also see just over a 50% chance the government could take a stake in Performance Drone Works, but less than 40% for Neros Technologies. This matters because it shows where financial markets predict government involvement in key tech sectors.